Dreams of Mungerilal!

The country may be busy debating the nerve-shattering(!) speech of Prime Minister Modi at the UNGA, following his near embrace of President Biden. It could have only been the whispering bee in the ears of an aged POTUS that restrained him from giving a tighter hug than Trump to Modi. But there cannot be any debates over the first move by Biden extending both his arms, inviting Modi for the embrace. A few taking umbrages to the warm and permissible physical encounter must also try out the Jadoo-ki-Jappi, like our own ‘Munna Bhai’ of politics.

The U.S. media shunned the visit, gloated the Indian opposition. Most are the story of the wolf and the sour grapes. One hundred ninety-three heads visit U.N. during the General Assembly. The Indian PM got the coverage the country deserved at the moment. A few Sikhs protested on the streets. One gaffe spoiled it all, the face of an ISI agent, Ghulam Nabi Fai, among them, revealing the originator of the protests. The idiot seemed media crazy and posed as if Raj Kundra was released on bail after the porn-related arrests, smiling for the lensmen.

The U.S. media unfailingly covers whenever some news affects their country, trade, health or defence. Their struggling-for-survival print and electronic media must sell to their ruthless viewers. It is not like blind fans of Arnab, who would continue to watch the same shouting over and over again like I frequently put on the Tata Sky and absent-mindedly stay glued to see the Naaptol products, or the horny Lux Cozi ads repeating several times before I realize and change the channels.

But Bengal is neither impressed with Modi’s visit nor his speech in the UNGA. The state is seething with rage over the denial of Central approval for the visit of Didi to Rome, where she could have rubbed fists with who’s who like the Pope and Angela Merkel in an award ceremony. (shoulder-rubs are barred under Covid restrictions, and the Pope reportedly suffers from a frozen shoulder!) A few insist that Modi engineered the timing of the UNGA to impress the Gujarati voters in the Bhowanipore constituency, for you know what!

Fumes a Didi diehard, ‘what of it if the hosts are a Catholic religious organization? Swami Vivekananda is remembered today because he visited the U.S. to address the World Parliament of Religions. The lady from Kalighat deserved to be heard from Rome to Mecca. The world must know that Bengal is the most tolerant and religiously peaceful country. Oops, State! She would’ve scaled the heights of Swamiji and resurrected the image of Bengal.

Mamata’s fans must check out the Nobel prize for peace and propose Didi’s name. She will face no challenges from a battle-hungry BJP and a warmongering PM. I go into my Mungerilal Avatar: a region with no State and national and international borders, where I can easily buy a Smith & Wesson as easily as I can buy a milk packet of Banglar Dairy.  But wait, with Didi, firearms, only of a kind used for roll caps during festivals, may ever be available.

Back to the lament, the hosts are not the Italian government, not even a regional government, nor any big international name. So Mamata must no more accede to frivolous invitations and invitations which are suspect.  She is an international material. As a born-and-living-in Bengal, I was not wrong to dream like Mungerilal, of Mamata addressing the UNGA, an amused Imran Khan and a confused Taliban looking at each other, like the translators did. But believe me, she will address the UNGA from 2024 onwards, and we will talk on this subject.

I must add that the My sources from Vatican are unaware of any event as of now. With offence meant to none, right now, over to Bhowanipore.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

Are our stock markets well insulated?

The threat of a meltdown of Evergrande is looming large over Asia, and India cannot claim a total respite from its impact. The Beijing government has not come out with any bailout package and has insisted that interest payment must not default. In the earlier occasions to Evergrande had a bailout, largely by the owner’s personal friends to the tune of $16Bn. The company was to pay $83.5 million interest on Thursday for its March 2022 bond, and another $47.5 million interest payment would become due on September 29 for March 2024 bonds. Both bonds will default if the real estate group fails to settle the interest within 30 days of the scheduled payment dates.

A default would also throw a massive sum of $300 Bn or Rs. 2,21,11,84,50,00,000.00 which is nearly 2% of the GDP of China. During the U.S. Lehman crisis of 2007-09, the U.S. government moved quickly to fund the banks and bailout a rescue. The Chinese government might hesitate to intervene as Evergrande is not the only reality company that might bust in an economy with a 78% reality share. Many investors have bought properties under construction, which may never be completed, as suppliers have stopped material flow to Evergrande.

The jubilancy in the Indian bourses now seems to me an overplay, and the bubble could burst anytime, if not for China, correcting on its own all-time highs. The scenario of delving in stocks is akin to tumultuous Harshad Mehta times, when everyone, from a clerk to a small shop owner, invested their hard earn monies dreaming of making it big. It lasted a while until the fairy tale ended harshly, many losers committing suicide, including the Chairman of Vijaya Bank.

For the high Sensex,  the trading stocks must have been grossly undervalued, or the ROIs have grown substantially.  Neither is the case. The retail investors are not much bothered with what percentage of return they will get from the shares. They will book profits as soon the first signs of slippage is visible over the horizon, leading to a contagion effect. Instead of exposing bank’s risk with loans to companies, the government has forced the companies to take the stock-exchange route while pushing the depositors away from banks to the stock market, with hopes of high returns.

The burgeoning stock values help the companies to seek additional funds from the banks, who are happy to lend with cheaper deposits costing the banks a measly five per cent. The companies must repay when the share prices fall and taking down the asset value mortgaged.

The turmoil in China might push FIIs to sniff the Indian market, where still a few scrips are selling at manageable levels. Right now, it is a frenzy. Even food delivery outfits with no tangibles rake in the moolah. Social networks are full of pundits predicting a glitzy future for many penny stocks, the gullible public taking the bait.

I am waiting for a correction and hope it will be to the tune of 8K-10K. From the total market capitalisation of US$3.4044 Tn, even a 10% fall would equal to Evergrande’s total debts of $300 Bn.

Tread with caution, keeping greed at bay, is all I would advise, as I see correction clouds not far.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

The rot has set in!

Today’s West Bengal politics has become different, one not knowing which leader is in which party. If defection by a leader like Manas Bhuyian from Congress was digested with disbelief, cross-over by a hardcore CPIM Krishi leader like Abdul Razzak Mollah was despised. Both had joined the Trinamool party, thus paving the way for open gates policy for the future defections and detriment of politics in the State, known until then for a more matured politics than many states in India.

The BJP party, which many believed was different, became an also-ran by admitting Mukul Roy, the then No.2 in AITC. The BJP party soon was filled with defectors that positively impacted their electoral gains in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, while the old-timers quietly sulked. I had written then about BJP’s sacrifice of ideals that would fetch only temporary gains. Mukul went back to AITC, followed by a few other winning MLAs. BJP is in tenterhooks to keep their flock safe and happy and finding it increasingly difficult to do so.

Babul Supriyo’s defection has other connotations as well. It reveals the rot that has been set in the State BJP. The State president Dilip Ghosh, I guess, is like a monarch, contemptuous of all his subjects and disliking every new person challenging his authority. He seems oblivious of the damage to his party by the exodus of his leaders. The attempt to cut to size by placing his party MPs as sitting ducks and lose is sufficient reason to throw him and the state minders into exile. Dilip Ghosh believed that his eye-for-an-eye style had more mass appeal than the intellectual juggernauted styles pursued by many other leaders. Dilip forgot that, when it comes to street-fight politics, none can match the innovative tricks the AITC supremo and her party men have in their sleeves.

Be that as it may, in a larger context, Bengal politics is stinking like never before. Defectors are paraded like war heroes. In the unprecedented scenario of non-stop hops, the voters electing leaders on their party symbols stand utterly dismayed and defeated. Democracy stands bruised, and the long-term repercussions do not augur well for the State.

It is pointless to argue as to who had started the game of defections.  The BJP party might have, in a larger context. But having a huge mandate to rule the State, the stature of AITC would have improved by not admitting opportunistic politicians like Babul Supriyo. The AITC could have as much weakened or embarrassed the BJP and Modi/Shah combine by exposing Babul’s overtures. But, again, politics is no more a gentleman’s serving. It is populated by menials, crooks, criminals, and manipulators. It is despicable to hear Babul saying now that none other than Didi would be the best choice as a PM in 2024 while pretending to be the most loyal soldier for the last seven years.

If there are more defections from the BJP to AITC in the future, the State BJP leadership could be responsible for it as much. Babul’s defection has neither added merit to Bengal politics nor improved the opportunistic image of AITC.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

The great Indian political circus!

The ink had not dried from my post on the Trinamool Supremo’s aspirations for the post of the Prime Minister of India, when the news of Babul Supriyo, a former Union State Minister from the NDA and a sitting MP had resigned from BJP and joined his adversaries the AITC, in the presence of Abhishek Banerjee, MP.

Babul Supriyo’s story had all the potboiler elements. Still, it got relegated to the background with another even more thrilling story, the CM of Punjab Captain Amarinder Singh submitting his resignation.

In the case of Supriyo, the disgruntlement of the MP during the West Bengal Assembly elections and his crumbling defeat indicated that all was not well. His pleas for not considering him as an Assembly candidate fell on deaf ears. BJP cut him to size after the polls, as Babul’s distance from the State leadership, Dilip Ghosh, widened. He lost his free entry to the home minister and the PM, taken over by Suvendu Adhikary. Mukul Roy, the engineer for defections, worked on Babul and succeeded in inflicting a humiliating blow to the BJP and the state BJP leadership.

Amarinder Singh, the CM of Punjab and a senior leader of the Congress party, was getting too strong to the Gandhi family’s displeasure. The party always detested anyone growing too big to challenge the might of Sonia and Rahul and Amarinder, for his seniority and experience could do that. Soon started the see-saw politics, bringing in the Cricketer-turned-comedian politician Navjot Singh Sidhu. In a division of powers, the Gandhis appointed Sidhu as the Punjab Congress chief, much to the chagrin of Amarinder Singh.

Sidhu threatened to join AAP if denied the state party leadership, to which Delhi tamely conceded, thanks to the intervention of his friend Priyanka Vadra Gandhi. His singular aim seemed to flex and announce his powers, but the political maverick Sidhu, in the process, started humiliating Amarinder Singh. Political observers were only waiting for this day when Captain would quit, which did not come as a surprise to most, at least not to me.

What Captain would do next is a more interesting question. He has confirmed that he is not retiring from politics. Capt. is unlikely to stay in the Congress. He has a few other choices, to float his party or to join AAP. I discount the second option as Amarinder and AAP leader Bhagwant Mann are not on the best of friendly terms. Captain’s age might become a hurdle in doing anything adventurous, which leaves the unlikely option of Captain allying with the BJP. I can see many frowns, but to them, I would only ask, ‘how many thought Babul would join the Trinamool party?’

There’s a political churn in India. CMs of three BJP ruled states have been replaced. Mamata has thrown in her hat to fight Modi in 2024. The crumble of Congress under the Gandhis is unstoppable. Left has nothing left, and many regional parties could influence the future politics of India.

Moral of the story: Not to take sides ever and support or criticize politicians. They could switch to the opposition camps at any time!

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

A mirage?

A mirage?

The All-India Trinamool Congress, after their resounding victory in the West Bengal Assembly elections, had promptly begun making the right noises, claiming the lead role for their party as the principal opponent of the BJP. AITC posters and banners soon emerged, predicting the Khela-hobe venue will be in Delhi, and the new PM will be Mamata Banerjee in 2024. The posters were like street cricket, unknown beyond a few houses with balconies or windows facing the street.

A few things happened in the meanwhile. The poll-strategist, Prashant Kishor’s contract, was extended by AITC until 2025, or until the crown would be firmly on Mamata’s head.  Abhishek Banerjee, the nephew of Mamata, became the second in command, though he always held the position unofficially. Unlike many other larger political parties, the party can have no challenges for its leadership once Mamata decides to pass the baton and hand over the reins to her nephew. The situation may not be the same if she opts for a leader from outside her family, resulting in a cockfight. 

Mamata has every reason to aspire to be the CM, which emanates from her party’s recent electoral victories and her dislike and contempt for Modi and his BJP party. I guess she and many in Bengal think the present PM is a fluke or a fraud. What must not be missed is what the rest of the states could be thinking of Mamata. 

While she has endeared herself to all opposition leaders as the staunchest critic of Modi, the stature would go for a sharp swing when she poses competition to the other’s plans of proposing opposition PM faces from their respective alliances in 2024.

A senior parliamentarian and spokesperson of AITC has dismissed Rahul Gandhi as the undeserving face for the Prime Minister’s post. He has not stopped at that but has added that Mamata alone is eligible to take on Modi. It may be a fact, but the utterances are enough to upset the Congress, which by the current numbers is much larger than the AITC. A strong group within the Congress party, rattled by Prashant Kishor’s propelling the idea of Mamata as PM ’24, have negated the entry of Kishore into INC as a member. 

Incidentally, AITC ranks 4th in the current Parliament strength, sharing the place with YSR Congress Party with 22 seats, DMK is ahead of AITC with 24 seats, the INC with 52 and the BJP 301 seats.

Rather than trying to put the cart before the horse, her party leaders must consolidate in other states to prove that they are true ‘All India.’ Mere muddying the water in Tripura wouldn’t do. Didi’s party must dare and appear in the UP-election arena, as there is no guarantee for the wing-clipped SP or BSP to support a much stronger Mamata.

Sitaram Yechury has made a significant statement now: ‘Vote over, Jot over,’ meaning the electoral understanding for the last parliamentary election ended with the election. The message is plain and simple; the battered left would like to revive its national presence rather than supporting Mamata.

Without Congress and the Left parties supporting Mamata, it is prudent for her to concentrate and build the economy of West Bengal rather than looking far at Delhi. But her sycophant diehard party leaders wouldn’t stop at anything for now. Mamata’s chances also depend on what the clueless West Bengal State BJP does in the next three years.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

Atma Nirbhar on Defence!

India’s PM Modi struck a personal bond with U.S. President Donald Trump, who lost the election and was replaced by Joe Biden. Indian PM’s undiplomatically campaign in a packed stadium of Overseas Indian, ‘Ab ki baar, Trump Sarkar,’ literally coaxing a historically democratic party supporting Indian s to support Trump. Biden, the prime opponent, or the Republican hawks wouldn’t have missed watching the event and stored them in their memory.

America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has altered the defence-political scenario in the region. The exit is a pointer towards the scant American regard for other countries affected by their move. The resurgent and regrouping Al-Qaida in Afghanistan could enter a quid pro quo with the Taliban not offending the U.S., focusing on their long-term adversary, India. The U.S. might leave it to us to address the issue and defend our borders and may not interfere.

India joined the Quad dialogue in 2007 during the tenure of Man Mohan Singh with its three members the U.S., Japan, and Australia. China was the biggest trade partner of Australian mining resources, which Australia could not ignore. The defence partnership was abandoned, with Australia quietly withdrawing from the combine. The U.S., Japan, Australia Quad was revived in 2017, and India became an active player after its border standoff with China.

Yesterday, Australia shocked the world by abruptly cancelling a $40 Billion contract for nuclear-powered Submarine from France and signed a deal with the U.S. agreeing to let their waters for American nuclear-powered subs. It shows clearly that international agreements and treaties do have not much value in the face of economic shocks. Trade compulsions are driving countries to tweak and steer their defence strategies.

In the event of a major standoff between Quad and China, India is the one that will be affected most, with the Chinese pearl necklace around the Indian sub-continent. The recent happenings in Afghanistan when the U.S. exited, leaving its allies in limbo and the Australians abrupt U-turns, earlier withdrawing from the Quad and now over the submarines are chink in the armour are lessons India must not miss.

Strengthening our defence is more crucial than ever than joining defence games to prove that we have come of age.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

The ‘Khela hoche’ of Tamil Nadu!

The Tamil Nadu Assembly passed a resolution seeking to stop the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) for their State’s students.  The Bill exempted all students aspiring for medicine, dentistry and homoeopathy. Only the BJP opposed the Bill, supported by all the parties. The State’s Bill must bear the stamp of assent by the President to become valid. Earlier all admissions to the State’s medical admissions were based on the Class XII Board examination results.

Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, MK Stalin, touted to protect the backward student communities from discrimination. Admission to medical colleges and NEET fall under List III of the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution of India, under Art 245, where the Centre and State both can frame laws. However, if there is a conflict of the State’s laws with the Centre’s, the Centre’s laws shall prevail.

State’s students are greatly disadvantaged ever since NEET exams have become the route for admission to medical colleges. Central board like CBSE students have been increasingly grabbing the seats. Armed with the Bill, Stalin will move the SC to exempt the students from his State from appearing in NEET.

The Supreme Court has already heard the matter and dismissed it, stating that any exemption from NEET could compromise the quality of intellect of the entrants to the medical admission.

There can be no denial that rural students are put to severe disadvantage with common entrance tests. Successive Tamil Nadu State Governments, led by MGR, Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, have imposed and reversed common tests with a farcical regularity. The same party, which approves entrance tests as the ruling party, turns turtle to vehemently object while seated in the opposition.

The State Government thinks of tweaking laws and pushing the Centre to pass an ordinance as it did in Jallikattu, a bull-taming sport banned by the Supreme Court based on the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act. The State amended the Act by an ordinance and obtained the approval of the Governor, assenting for the President.

More than the love for the suffering rural students, the corruption-steeped Dravidian party leaders own many hospitals and medical colleges. Capitation fees, often running into crores, have been snapped by the NEET entrance route, incurring huge losses for the political biggies.

To improve the quality of students appearing for the NEET exams must be the right path, rather than stoking emotions over periodical suicides of medical student aspirants. I wonder if any politician would dare getting admitted to a government hospital or a Rural Health Centre? The reasons are well known.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

Keep religion away!

The world is seized with Taliban issues, governments huddling over means to tackle the sudden changes in the geopolitical situation in the region.

We are seized of a contentious issue, the allotment of a room in the Jharkhand assembly to the minorities for offering Namaz. Hemant Soren has needlessly stirred a hornet’s nest as the BJP has caught on to the government’s controversial order without much to protest otherwise in the state. Ranchi is paralyzed today, with opposition parties protesting vehemently against the order to provide one room for Muslim prayers.

The saffron brigade is out in strength with pictures of various gods, Hanuman topping their charts. Many are demanding to recite Ganesh Vandana before the commencement of the session and Hanuman Chalisa during the sessions. The protests have now spread to other states as well.

India is arguably a secular state, religion showing up with the politicians during the polls to polarize voters. But, by and large, neither the judiciary nor the bureaucracy is much tainted with religious slants.

Primarily it is the idiocy of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s leader and the CM Hemant Soren to appease any group by offering a place for prayer. Next would be a demand for holidays on Fridays, as prevalent in most Muslim countries. Instead of forging amity between communities, like the recent RSS overtures, it is criminal to spark disharmony among people.

I would have objected in equal force had any government provided space for a temple inside either a state assembly or such place of governance. It is easy to let the genie out of the lamp and impossible to push it back inside.

With the world watching with shock and horror the happenings in Afghanistan, the Centre and states must try and promote secular harmony between communities, rather than such silly acts.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

Bengal Soap Opera!

I have a busy day ahead and will quickly write a few lines on Bengal. The Election Commission has announced Sept 30 as the bypoll in Bhowanipore, where Mamata has announced her candidature.  She must get elected to the State Assembly for her continuance as the CM of Bengal. No one from the ruling party has praised the EC for being neutral, which is normal.

Be that as it may, the disarray in the BJP camp is more discernible than ever. They knew of the bypoll in the offing but have announced no candidate. One camp claims that they are unafraid and will contest against Didi. ‘Unafraid,’ of losing? It indicates that they have already given a walkover and have conceded the seat to Mamata Banerjee. There is another camp in the BJP, which claim that they are looking into the legal angles. Why? To check if the EC has been partisan in permitting the bypoll only in Bhowanipore to help Didi. I guess the judiciary has little to say and will rubbish any plea against the EC.

Meanwhile, Abhishek has dared and is in Delhi to present himself before the ED on the coal scam case. On the other hand, BJP MLA Suvendu Adhikari is dodging ED summons. Certainly, the latter’s repeated escapes from summons are not adding value to the image of the BJP party in West Bengal.

Next is the summons for 3 Trinamool ministers and a police officer in Narada Scam. Again, the ED has refrained from summoning Suvendu, who was then in Trinamool and has now switched over to the BJP. Suvendu must turn approver, or else the ED must proceed against him in the same manner as with the others.

AITC, in a professional manner, started wall graffiti and postering in the prestigious Bhowanipore seat. The internal bickering of BJP over a lacklustre state leadership in West Bengal has come to the fore, resulting in many defections from the BJP back to the Trinamool.

Unless the BJP replaces their state leadership immediately, Trinamool will maul the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

The unquiet borders!

Taliban today formalized their government with Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada as their Emir, the Supreme Leader. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is likely to head the government. Sirajuddin Haqqani, Mullah Omar’s son and Mawlawi Muhammad Yaqoub could be in the council of ministers.

The scenario is anything but comforting for India, which seems to be lost in the wilderness from the abrupt departure of the U.S. forces, leaving behind billions of dollars worth of lethal arms. The U.S. has not revealed to the world the reasons for leaving behind the helicopters, drones, stinger missile launchers, and more than 600000 rifles. If there was no time to carry them back, they could have destroyed or neutralized the mean flying machines armed to their teeth.

I am not a government-aided, paid influencer to shout from my rooftop that India can take all adversaries down with full conviction. Pakistan is the true villain, more than the Taliban. Pakistan has aided and abetted the Taliban terrorists during the two decades, despite receiving aid from the U.S. to contain terrorism. China has stepped in, where the U.S. has left a void.

Taliban is an undisciplined, rag-a-tag outfit who had captured power overthrowing a duly elected government by wielding their guns. The public support to the Taliban proves that religion supersedes all other factors. As soon as a government s, those outside the government will start flexing their muscles. The Al-Qaida-Taliban hardliners will target Kashmir, supported without a doubt by China.

Politics makes strange bedfellows, and we may have a Shi’ite Iran and have declared that they will not recognize the Sunni Taliban. The 3.8 crore population of Afghanistan Shi’ite Hazaras may never accept the Taliban as legitimate.

Did the U.S. not know the consequences of deserting the government they supported? Did the U.S. not realize their loss of face as a super-power in the world? The U.S. has handed over a win on a platter to China and Pakistan, leaving all trusted friends of the U.S. in a dilemma.
The Taliban and such similar outfits will now dare to repeat their feat elsewhere in the world, devoid of fear of intervention by the U.S. or its allies.

This leaves China at the top for the moment. The additional cost of defence would drain India’s meagre resources in fortifying our borders and keep a tighter vigil more than ever.

P.s: I Must write a line by a few Indian Muslim leaders like Omar Abdullah and Owaisi, who are demanding that the government must clarify if the Taliban is a terror outfit or not. Surely there cannot be more sinister characters in India. Go ahead, recommend the Taliban for the Nobel Peace prize!

Jai Hind

Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix