The underlying facts!

Long ago I was working in Sarabhai group, a leading industrial house in India with interests in Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, textile, polymers, detergents, cosmetics and many more. I have heard that we used to follow a potato price index related slab for fixing our Dearness Allowance. It seems that those have become antiquated and now undergarments have moved in, be it to gauge economic growth or to confirm killing of ISIS leaders.

The hidden from eyes, save from the ogling Akshay Kumar in a chauvinistic Dollar underwear Ad, the humble modified and improvised langot has scaled great heights. An insider smuggled out the most prized material, an undergarment, worn by Baghdadi, the ISIS leader, which then flew out to the most secured CIA labs to determine his DNA. After his suicide, following an attack by US Marines, it was this inner-wear, which confirmed the identity of the dead terrorist.

Let’s move on to more worldly affairs. The imbroglio over the CM’s post is keeping the formation of the government in Maharashtra by the estranged partners BJP and Shiv Sena. I am genuinely touched by the undying desire of service by the politicians of our country, who will go all out for the preferred portfolios.

Tamil Nadu is agog with a huge land grab allegation against the DMK. That is nothing strange, save that it involved their office and if legal action is pursued, the party may lose out a prime plot that it is alleged to have usurped, sans any valid documents. The land grab news dwarfed with a child falling into an open tube well hole, and the state went into an orgy of prayers, invoking every god from all religions.

Sadly, the efforts to bring out the child alive failed, but something strange happened, a race to announce financial compensation to the grieving family; the opposition DMK announced Rupees ten lacs, not to be outdone, the government announced twenty lacs and so it went on. Only in one district, there are more than 8000 open tube well holes in disuse waiting to gobble unsuspecting children. A situation could arise now that the children start praying; they are not pushed into the holes for the hard to resist largesse. On a serious note, the open holes must be closed soon, if necessary, with a law enforcing the same.

Bengal is busy, thinking of appointing a committee to explore what other pujas could be celebrated after Jagadatri Puja, which will draw the curtains for the year until Saraswati Puja would open the account early in the next year. The state cannot afford a lull, though a Film festival, a T20 cricket match, Christmas and New Year will fill the interim void of puja-less November and December. Talking about Christmas, does anyone have a clue, where is Derek O’Brien, one of the not-so-soft-spoken-voice of the ruling party in Bengal.

Remembering the ruling party, it is no secret who rules the former Mayor Sovan Chatterjee. The ex-TMC leader and right hand of Didi switched over to BJP with his live-in friend, Baisakhi. Both were not in their bright moods, and so was another ready-to-switch politician, Shatabdi Roy, who for some strange reasons was not inducted into BJP and went back to TMC. Sovan has been cold-shouldered by the BJP and decided to brave it to Didi’s home on ‘brother’s day,’ accompanied by, you guessed it, Baisakhi. I quite don’t believe in mumbo-jumbo, but has the problem began after he moved into Fort building? Whispers of a Vastu non-compliant abound the tall structure, though a family friend living there rubbishes all these as nonsense. Which? I leave it to your guess!

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

 

 

The firecrackers!

The news for an industry starved Bengal is that a firecracker industry is growing around Champahati and the claim that it will replace Sivakasi, the oldest fireworks manufacturing centre in India. The Government mandarins missed on humidity, which has to be low for fireworks manufacturing. Today the humidity in Sivakasi is 60% and in Champahati is 87%. That explains the planning in governments.

Be that as it may, Mamata Didi’s extensive walks during the elections are well known. But I was surprised to see her running, no, not being chased by any opposition leader. It was in Kurseong, where she had gone to conduct her administrative meetings.  The posse of security personnel, officials all were making a Herculean effort to keep pace with her. I now know why a few XXXL sized party members avoid her during her walks and visits. A few spirited ones too stay back. Didi did 10 Kms at a stretch. At this rate she would need only 149 days to reach Delhi!

There was a storm, or so it seems, not in a teacup but a coffee cup when a waiter could have sought that he be addressed not in Bengali, but Hindi. Soon the Social Networks, slumbering for a while sprang up in action, after the sooner than usual return to India by Rahul from wherever he had gone for meditation. The viral post shared by a few erudite friends too questioned if Tamil Nadu would tolerate such an affront to language?  Why Tamil and not Telugu the official second largest spoken dialect? I guess the Nobel winner Abhijit might have had something to contribute to the popularity of Tamil.

Abhijit Vinayak Chatterjee caused a stir on his mention of Tamils and Sir CV Raman. I wouldn’t know how relevant these to his theory of poverty alleviation were. The press was disappointed with no anti-Modi statements from the erudite scholar. The fact is, Bengal did shun Raman and has not even fixed a marble plaque on the wall of the building where he stayed during his research days. A street in the name of Raman? Is not that asking for too much?

Durga pujas ended, and Kali Puja has begun. With that, the race for the inauguration of Pandals by political leaders of the many parties has started too. I was amused to see a friend of mine, a retired senior IAS officer inaugurating a puja pandal in North Kolkata that once carried the label of a dreaded don. I always thought that for the scholarly friend, God and religion were only subjects of research and nothing beyond.

I read about the encroachment of Kolkata wetlands written by a journalist friend of mine in the Times of India and feel they touch upon the subjects, only when they have nothing else to do. It is like crying who could have impregnated, the conceived woman, who has carried the child in her ever-bulging tummy to deliver after nine months. Withdrawal of East Kolkata Wetlands as a Ramsar site could be a possibility, it indicates. Bengal lacks the guts of the Aarey protestors and has only activists sipping wine and biting cheese at party times, discussing the ecological degradation, again until the next party.

Singapore has banned advertisements for sugary drinks, which includes Coke and Pepsi. Will the Indian government have the guts to follow suit? It may depend on how Sharad Pawar would steer his party vis-à-vis Congress in the coming days. He has a substantial interest in the Sugar belt of India.

As I walk the streets, I’ve started observing men, following the news report that Indians are not buying undergarments and that how bad the economy was. I failed to notice anything irregular but couldn’t keep staring for long, lest I am misunderstood!

Happy Diwali to all of you!

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

China 2019-4

Even as I had almost ended my three posts on China based on my recent visit, Baba Ramdev today stirred the hornets’ nest by urging India to boycott Chinese goods. I do not know if the statement of the Yoga Guru emanates from his falling business revenues and personal apprehensions about the future of his “Patanjali’ brand, which is severely stressed.

India’s exports to China in 2017-18 are about $ 17 Billion, and imports are $ 70 Billion but have overall managed to bring the trade deficit lower by $ 10 Billion. The Yoga guru may have thought that this could be the right time to take on the Chinese might, pressure from the US tariffs. He has missed out a few essential points, though.

Presuming that both countries have to source elsewhere, which could increase the cost of imports on an average 10%, it would cost China barely 0.9% of its GDP but cost India 2.9% of its GDP. That is a losing proposition for India!

Whether ‘Make in India’ would succeed if we switch over to producing or manufacturing all raw materials and intermediates? The answer is a definite no! I spoke to the then Secretary Science and Technology, Government of India as to why China could use our Iron ore with less Fe content. The secret was not technology but heavily subsidized Hydel power tariffs, around Rs.2.30 per Unit — India on an average charged over Rs.6/-.

Our strength is value addition, which has been proven by the Indian Pharma sector. Make them produce the raw materials, and the coast advantages vanish in a second. There are several hidden subsidies in China to ensure the survival of their industry, which includes prison inmates working and army assigned to factories as a part of the skill development process.

India is deficient in energy, rare earth, which China possesses. Indian businesses did not perform to global standards when the imports were restricted, often dishing out car relics like Ambassador and Standard 2000, long discarded at the countries of their original birth.

The Chinese are hungry for Indian culture, movies, which do not fail to rake up a few thousand crores each year. We must explore our strength in raw material resources, which can be converted into intermediates and value-added by India. That to my opinion, could be the only way forward, regardless of any border or political impediments. China also acknowledges India’s vast potential as a market and would do nothing to disturb it, particularly while under a sever trade turbulence with the US.

I would end stating that trade and culture are great levellers, in their ability to reduce tensions between two great civilisations and neighbours. We should promote it for the sake of prosperity of all.

Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix

China 2019-3

As I retire tired, I put on the only English TV channel, BBC, that is available in my hotel. The news of third-quarter GDP growth of China at 6% is out, belying expectations. The Chinese were aware of the downtrend and had doubled the infrastructure spending on the ninth month, pushing the average spending from 4.2% to 4.5% of their GDP. They are out with more strategies ready on the table.

The Chinese National Development and Reform Commission approved 21 infrastructural projects like rail, roads and airports worth US$ 107.8 Billion between January and October. It is double of their spending $52.8 Billion during the same period last year. For a while, China has kept aside their commitment to curb reliance on coal-fired plants and have opened seven new mines at $ 4.2 Billion.

China has been steadily investing, in particular in the energy sector around the world, which has crossed a massive $ 2 Trillion. The Chinese local governments have been empowered to issue bonds for $ 200 Billion. The US-China trade standoff on tariffs has indeed impacted a few core areas, including the service sector. Roughly a tenth of the market cap of $1.3 Trillion of shares pledges with banks and institutions are underwater at present. The Chinese government is doing all out to assist the industry to come out of the rut,  President Xi urging his citizens to be more self-reliant. This, however, is a difficult task given the Chinese reliance on the US market.

The Chinese FMCG market has resisted a fall, growing 6.3% and the supermarkets growing by 5%. The consumerism in China has thus helped stave off a crisis. The loss of skilled jobs from the manufacturing sectors could be partly addressed with thawing relations with Japan, which requires more than 500000 workers by 2025.

China witnesses a stable consumer price inflation as against high and volatile price inflation over the past decade. However, its pork industry has been affected severely due to a virus, wiping off 39% of its pig inventories and causing a foreseeable shortage of 10 million tonnes this year. The remedy was found by farming huge pigs of nearly 500 kgs weight each. Steroids? I wouldn’t know, neither of the Impact on the people who would consume such huge grown pigs. All these apprehensions can wait! First, the 70% increase in the cost of pork has to be reversed! That’s China!

The train stations are spic and span and usually run on time. The security clearance is like in airports, luggage scan body tickle et al. One has to always be well in advance as long queues are everywhere.

For tourists, I have some advice. Make sure you carry Chinese currency. Even the Hong Kong dollar, earlier traded at 1:1 is now 89.72 RMB per 100 HKD and cannot be exchanged easily. No bank in any town will exchange any foreign currency as the rules seem that only account holders can exchange money. The many Gujarati Indians, whom I had met, were loaded with enough ‘Thepla,’ or ‘Bujia.’ One whom I confronted hurriedly biting off a burger sheepishly smiled and replied, “but these are not holy cows, unlike the go-mata in India.” I scooted when he offered me to buy one.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

China 2019-2

Our business chamber had a visiting group from a private university, a couple of weeks ago. One of the officials slipped her card to me and advised that the seminar would be an interactive one and to provoke them with as many questions. That was enough to excite me. They went on comparing and brooding India’s economy and growth with that of India. The more than one-hour presentation revolved over China, China and China.

This is not the only instance of messing up by bookworm economists, trying to make pork chops from potatoes. I explained the futility of any comparison with a country with a) no god and religion, b) no opposition parties to deride everything government 3) no slanted media and 4) no courts to stop infra projects. The flag may be red and the name of their party Communist, but it could be more capitalistic in offering better and luxurious living standards to its citizens. Jazzy, long limousines are not frowned upon as bourgeoise but awed.

The communist revolution began 70 years ago setting course for a purge of earlier rulers and establishing a new class of governance. The time was not dissimilar to India’s attaining independence. Both countries were in abject poverty, inadequate infrastructure and industry but India had been colonized by Britain, which ensured that the country was stripped naked of its wealth to the last paisa.

The Chines diaspora which had escaped successive revolutions had planted themselves in many countries, running carpentry like in Canada, and eateries in all the western world. They started remitting money back like our Kerala boys from Dubai do now. The US policy to promote China and as a counterbalance to Russia’s influence changed the profile of China forever. The US perhaps never expected China to grow so much to challenge it one day like it is happening now.

The stark difference between the Chinese and the Indians is that the Chinese are filled with National pride. Our pride for India is shrouded by scepticism, disdain and even disgust of the duly elected governments and our leaders. When we talk about national pride, that too is given a coat of religious paint, confusing between a nation and religion.

The power of money has indulged in building new cities on ‘developing now and fill later’ basis, one such I had a chance to visit near Shanghai. The city had everything from apartments, bungalows, factory sheds, power distribution, gas, water, malls, schools, colleges, hospitals, universities, trees and gardens but without a soul living in it. That was just a few years ago. Today Pudong is brimming with activity. Why, Shenzhen, a sleepy fishing village of 30000 bordering Hong Kong too was developed from swamps in 1980 and is now the 4th largest with 12 million population. It would be unthinkable in India that even a tree could be cut down for infra-development and the courts remaining mute spectators (Aarey milk colony).

We take pride in demolishing our inner strength, our core-values blaming every adversity to the government in place, here and abroad. I asked my Chinese friend, a senior official, “What would be the consequences if someone criticizes President Xi as a thief.” He just froze, as if stepping on a high-tension live wire and after replied, “No one can, and no one should, for he is our country’s president.” That sums about their faith in their leadership.

More later!

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

In Pic: Proud Chinese policemen standing like statues for hours at a stretch, only their eyes scanning the crowd.

China 2019-1

The Chinese authorities kindly obliged issuing a business visa on an urgent basis as I hopped on to a flight in the evening, attending on the invitation of China Import Export meet at Guangzhou. The restaurants at the official hotels are a barometer of attendees, and the crowds were seemingly thinner, but the crowd at the gates of the events belied any undue apprehensions.

China’s E-commerce is evolving speedily, and food deliverers are plenty. Health care has grown into the second-largest market in the world. Manufacturing stills reigns as a significant generator of employment and revenues for their country. China’s banking sector assets are close to $40 trillion, making it the world’s largest at $27.39 trillion in total deposits.

China was the chosen hub by Nixon and Kissinger, following increased cost of production in Korea, Japan and Taiwan, the three countries which the US embraced after the WW II.

From a US$ 2.7 Trillion GDP in 2006 (equivalent to what India is today), China’s GDP had grown to $ 13.6 Trillion in 2018 with an average 9.5% growth. The current year suffers from a 6.2% growth with no signs of any drastic improvement, following their trade stand-off with the USA.

China has wedged itself as an indispensable part of the economy of many countries, investing heavily on raw material resources and energy in particular. Deep pockets with $3.092 Trillion, China has created world-class infrastructure not only in China but strategically in many other countries, like an airport in Sri Lanka or sea-port in Myanmar, despite underlying fear of its hegemonistic intentions over weaker neighbours.

The manufacturing industry has its undeniable influence of India’s manufacturing sector as well, covering everything from chemicals, Pharma, textiles or telecom equipment. The Chinese manufacturing segment is dominating the entire world so much so that, any sudden turbulence could upset the world trade, which no one wants at this time of uncertainties.  China too should stop endorsement of ‘real-like fake models,’ from Jaguar cars to other pilfered technologies, which cost losses of billions of dollar to the US alone.

China is now a world leader in renewable energy equipment, solar panels and systems like inverters, power generators, pumps and motors, construction and earthmoving machinery, small machinery, farm equipment, E-vehicles, chemicals, food and Agri-products. rare-metals and what not under the sky.

To end on a lighter note,  only the “Ladies and Gentlemen’ part of the bilingual announcements was all that sounded English, the rest sounding just the same, all Chinese. It is no different elsewhere in Mainland China, the mobile app translators serving as saviours.

I will try to offer a few more posts on China economy and its impact on India’s growth in the next few days.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

The celebrations are for all!

This year’s Durga Puja celebrations conquered new heights in terms of fostering religious unity and understanding, which can be seen seldom in any other place other than Bengal. A senior cabinet minister, a Muslim, from the Mamata Government excitedly participated in the inauguration of many pandals and the festivities.  One Pandal offered Azaan as an exercise towards cementing communities. Another one reportedly performed the Kumari Puja with a Muslim girl child, in Hindu traditions. A Muslim gentleman built a permanent place of Durga worship in rural Bengal. A newly elected MP, a Muslim married to a Hindu, was dancing in ecstasy to the beat of the drums. All these were classic displays of cultural integration, so necessary in today’s context.

There were posts on the social networks enlightening the participation of many Muslim artisans creating Shola, the chalachitra-the paintwork of the Goddess’s angels at the back, the elegant filigree decorative or the wavy hairdos of the Gods. There could be more, the flowers and fruits offered, or the rice harvested which go into the festivals. Muslims have played a significant role then and are doing so now. These simple folks are unlike any hardline Islamists who loathe anything to do with other religions and in particular idolatry.

I guess such amity is certainly for the betterment of the state and the country and must be allowed to flourish I also sadly see that cases have already been filed by a few claiming that such overtures are insults to Hinduism. Similarly a few clergies have declared the participation of the Muslim MP as ‘Un-Islamic.’ A few others question, if the mosques will recite Chandipath or Bhagawat Gita, thus reciprocating the gestures made to the minority community.

Changes do come, with education and understanding, or calamity and compulsion. I prefer the earlier.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

The regressive G49!

Opposition to Modi began even before he became the PM for the first time. Insinuations and ugly accusations from his inability to speak English, his tea-seller background and more importantly his role in the Gujarat riots, which had erupted as an explosive public reaction to the Godhra train tragedy. From an infamous ‘maut ka saudagar,’ proponent of killings, by Sonia, ‘fit only to sell tea’ jibe by Mani Shankar Iyer, and topping with Rahul calling PM Modi’ Chor,’ thief, the Indian politicians and media indulged in below the belt hitting. The people decided otherwise, partly believing his ability to jail the corrupt and bringing in the black money stashed abroad.

I would not go into the extent of fulfilment of Modi’s electoral promises, which is not the subject here. He stunned with his passable English, his suave diplomatic skills and his establishing one to one friendship with most world leaders. A new Avatar of Modi was born, despite the opposition’s tirades, award wapsi, return of awards, provocation of the literati etc. Refusing to stand while playing our National Anthem too had become a demand in the name of democracy.

A few weeks ago, 49 celebrities wrote to the PM on the lynchings and the oppression of minorities and Dalits. I merely am acquainted with a few, kindhearted, failed or jobless, but celebrities at one time and therefore are sufferers with the attention-seeking disorder. The media well circulated the letter, and a lot of noise erupted for a while. The celebrities fumed and miffed at no reaction from the PM or PMO. I wrote then that it was a democratic right to approach the PM on issues singeing the country if it was in the right spirit and not political.

Now a lawyer has filed an FIR and in a Bihar court, which has taken cognizance and accepted the petition that includes sedition charges. The celebrities and their cohorts, media opposed to the government, have risen to cry hoarse over the attack of freedom of speech and expression, attacking the government. It is democratic when they write to the PM, and when another citizen finds it inappropriate and seeks for a judicial interpretation, it becomes hegemonistic. The lawyer has merely exercised his right as these G49 have done! In my opinion, the court should not have admitted the petition at all.

My take is, seldom a section of people, claiming to be descendants of some superior species have taken to such irreprehensible lows. From doubting the response of our air-force in Balakot strikes to fiercely opposing India’s action in Kashmir, they have a reason to oppose every day.

To the G 49 and the supporting media: Many acts of omission and commission have happened in all the states that the group hails from. They have made no whisper on those. Their target is only to attack the Prime Minister of a sovereign nation for personal rewards. The others who love India and its elected government have as much a right too, to respond legally as the lawyer is doing. These so-called intellectuals are not helping the nation in any manner but merely a regressive group, funded and encouraged by forces inimical to our nation’s stability and growth.

Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix

Much ado about nothing-5!

My mind shreds in millions of pieces when it is a holiday, and I find nothing to lament over. Why mind wanders listlessly, I wonder and not become as the politicians focused on issues: Ram Mandir, Durga Puja etc. Economy? You must be joking! That is for the opposition to drill holes and the finance minister’s job has been made easier merely issuing clarifications to the criticisms.

Talking about Durga Pujas, the state of West Bengal has slipped into a spirited frenzy of long holidays, which was extended by the grace of memories of Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastri. The inauguration of the Puja pandals has become a tug of war between the TMC and the BJP. I wish not to elaborate as I have detailed pujas in another earlier post of mine.

Religion has been forced to make way to the celebrations as the ‘goddess’ is inaugurated from pandal to pandal in a competition by leaders of the two warring parties. The gods and goddess are in a turmoil as to which side they should lean in 2020 and 21. I guess it may not be strange to find pandals dismantled and resized smaller for the Lakshmi Puja and immediately rebuilt for the next years’ puja. The inauguration could be done in advance just as we see the walls reserved for the poll graffities.

I thought ‘Abki baar’ Modi had returned from the US, but he was seen on another quick foreign jaunt ‘Phir ek baar,’ inaugurating whatever in Mauritius. The man sure has energy, making his whole cabinet redundant, just like Trump.

Of the many great things (!) done by Modi Sarkar, the crowning was the banning of e-cigarettes. The government has proven to be a poor man’s friend, contrary to the criticisms to the contrary by keeping the beedis out of the ambit of the ban. What is the poor die of cancer? The government forever committed to their causes from one of their renamed ‘Yojanas’ could treat all the poor afflicted for free, if not anywhere, in Delhi hospitals. This can be the only way to end the oppressive rule of Arvind Kejriwal by populating Delhi with even more sick people!.

The season’s take is ‘I dare you,’ by Greta Thunberg and the world dividing between her supporters and haters. The natural resources are stagnant or receding, simply because of one reason, burgeoning population. We are producing like rabbits, which requires a trim. Hungry bellies and thirsty throats will not easily understand the meaning of environment. I guess the world leaders will respond to the emergency with the same alacrity as reducing the ozone layer.

One advertisement on a TV channel caught my eyes. It was a non-stop, round the year, many times a day clip from Gabon priding itself from the abundant wood resources. It seems that Gabon has been receiving substantial aid to preserve their forests from Norway. They are getting even more money from the felling of the same trees and selling to many veneer companies, including forty from India. Can that be called a two-way-trade?

I might have earned my bread and made my editor happy in pushing the garbage out of my head and into the FB pages.

Enjoy pujas!

Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix

‘Visarjan’- the immersion before the pujas!

The holidays have already begun in West Bengal, and a celebration mood has set in across India, Durga Puja for some and Navratri for some other. If vanquishing of the buffalo demon is the cause for the celebration in eastern India, it is the nine forms of shakti worship in the form of ‘Golu’ in the south, and it is Rama’s slaying of Ravana in the north. Eventually, in all cases good triumphs over evil, which is the unifying part in diversified India.

My meeting with a few Congress friends in Chennai was short, their spirits low, playing second fiddle to a crafty DMK. The mood in Delhi is no better. The Congress party is facing elections from Haryana, which is their forte and the infighting has peaked. Pre-poll indicators forecast a defeat for the party.

Leaders like Digvijay have not been adding value to the party. The former CM has never ceased in putting his foot in his mouth in speeds which will make any F1 champs concede defeat without a race. The Chief Minister of MP, Kamal Nath, is facing the prospect of the reopening of ’84 riot cases as well as serious money laundering charges against his relatives. P. Chidambaram cooling his heels in Tihar is a severe embarrassment to the party.

By opposing critical national issues like doubting Balakot strikes, abrogation of the provisions relating to Kashmir under Art 370or PM’s US deliberations, Congress seems to be finding fault with every Modi move, regardless of the public mood. The quite comeback and recapture of the party by the family is going to cost the party badly. The social network soldiers of Congress too have been pathetic, rejoicing over every skid and slip of our country. The brooding economic wing enjoy criticising sadistically, often abusive, with nothing positive to offer.

The Congress party, exploiting the borrowed title of Gandhi and led by a severe faultline of pseudo Gandhis must move aside, or better far away. It is good to remember the mythological Bhasmashura who turned whoever he touched to ashes and was finally killed by making him touch his head himself.

I wish the sycophants will stop shedding crocodile tears and let a few still able and young Congressmen like Scindia, Pilot of Prasada to take over the mantle and help elevate the party as an ideal and responsible opposition.

I have already written the epitaph of the present dispensation of the GOP, and a reversal of fortunes seem remote against a relentless onslaught of a nationalistic chutney of mandir, citizenship and military might by the BJP.

If it is not R.I.P, it is a rip-off of the Congress party by a few selfish politicians!

Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix